Session 10

Brief Overview/Summary

The tenth TWC lesson was about Technology Assessment and Forecasting, particularly in the area of developing a framework for understanding and what comes next. Prof Shahi then defined certain terms that are key and necessary in today’s lesson.

Forecast: The process of predicting future directions in technology, where new forms of technology might lead us to, and how it may change the world.

Foresight: Refers to the interface between forecasting and assessment by looking at one specific form or area of future technology, and then assess its feasibility and adaptability in the near future.

Assessment: Evaluating a technology that currently exists. People can assess current forms of technology by asking where we are now with such form of technology, where we’re going with it, and how it will change the way society operates.  

One of the examples that Prof mentioned is that use of robots in daily lives. Why would humans need robots? For cleaning and sweeping? If so, what are the social implications? Will it cause a lack of the availability of jobs? (In particular, the use of robotic cars will rob away the jobs of taxi drivers and public transport drivers.)

Interesting Observations and Ideas

Prof Shahi formally started the class with a quote by Charles Kettering:

“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”

This quote meant is that in reality, from this minute forward, everything that we do is in the future. However, the question is, why are we so interested in the future?

The future can help us move forward. If we are aware of the opportunities and challenges ahead in the future, we will be prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. However, if we do not know what will happen in the future, we will be lost and left behind.

The second quote that Prof shared was an African proverb, which said that:

“Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today”

Similar to the first quote, this quotes means that if one do not prepare for tomorrow, when it comes, one is going to be surprised.

Prof then showed us a video from Siemens, titled Siemens: Megatrends, which portrayed the use of technology today and how technology can advance in the future.

In short, the video emphasized that security is one of men’s’ basic needs. However, if people implement such forms of security on knowledge, it will not benefit, and will even impede our progress. This means that if we choose to keep knowledge secret and only provide them to others on a confidential basis, the ability to get comments and feedback is limitless. This way, the spread of knowledge is impeded and without feedback and comments, people cannot work on the existing work to improve to the next level, giving new insights and information.

The second video that Prof showed us is a parody of Microsoft's Vision of the Future, which portrayed the possible forms of technology in the near future.

As mentioned in previous lessons, some of these forms of technology are already available, and it is dependent on people to fully utilize it for further technological advancement. However, the challenge that people face today is to determine the winners of the future from the dead end, such that which form of technology will triumph in the future, and which ideas will be taken down.

Prof also introduced a quote by Benjamin Franklin, stating:

“Look before, or you'll find yourself behind”

This quote tells us that we have the choice of whether we want to live in the past or the future. However, if we want to look into the future, we have to look at the history, learn from it and then continue to look into improving ourselves.

Also, a quote by Winston Churchill said that:

“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind. ”

This means that people must focus on how we are going to conquer the world. However, to ‘conquer the world’ is not based on one’s physical might, but in their imagination and creativity. It will be the ones who dare to imagine and dream to create the future.

Prof then showed us a video called Future, Technology and the Next 50 years Megatrends.

This video summarizes everything that we talked about from the first lesson of the class. The question asked if different forms of technology such as solar, robotics, network, nanotech and augmented reality can and will really be established in the future.

Drivers for Technology Assessment and Forecasting

1)   Exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance

This is one of the biggest drivers of technology assessment and forecasting. There are more and more new technologies that are coming up today and people would need to start making sense of them. We would need to decide which technology would work and be accepted in society, which would be useful but has social implications, and which would not work and should not be brought out into the market.

2)   The need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring – in economic, social, ethical/legal, and environmental and other terms.

This means that people must be able to assess and evaluate technology and how it can potentially change things. Based on that, people must decide if such forms of technology are positive or negative. With that, they will either say no to its existence, KIV, or either accept and bring that form of technology into the market.

3)   The need to prioritize in deciding whether and when to invest in research and development of new innovations and technologies

If you have a budget for research in your country, do you want to invest in research for new forms of technology? What are the potential implications you may face? Is it going to be big impact? How big a player can it be in the society?

No one has unlimited research resources and budgets, and therefore people must decide and learn to prioritize their budgets for most important and viable research.

4)   The need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies – especially important in developing countries

There is an important need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether we should and when we can implement and use new innovations and technologies. This is especially important in developing countries. Developing countries have to place huge importance on prioritizing their resources to needs instead of wants. Typically, people would think that it would be pointless and a waste of resources for developing countries to invest in research in new technology. If the people are living in poverty, the government should take steps to mediate such a situation instead.

In the short term, the use of resources for research in developing countries may look like its wrong and a waste of resources, as peoples’ needs are not directly met. However, in the long term, if the government has made the right bets on the type of research to invest in, it will increase the output from the country and directly bring advancement to the economy. With a large industrial base, companies can start pushing for output and economic gains.

In short, organizations involved in research of new technology should look at short-term gains, but countries should look further and focus on long-term gains instead of short-term needs. Each organization has their own drivers to decide what they want to spend their resources on.

Prof Shahi then continued the lesson with a quote from John F Kennedy:

“For time and the world do not stand still…

Change is the law of life.

And those who look only to the past or the present

Are certain to miss the future.”

This quote tells us that we cannot get hung up about current situations and issues or even historic issues, because the future is coming at us whether we like it or not. It is either we prepare for it, or we’re going to find ourselves left behind.

Prof also then showed us another video titled Tracking the Future - Global Trends. It gave the word ‘future’ an acronym:

Fast moving

Urban living

Tribal – New tribes, new groups of people with new interests and commonalities

Universal change –

Radical change

Ethical – Ethics in business

These words, which form the word ‘future’, describe the kind of world that we live in today,

Foresight

To begin, there are many foresight institutes established in the world today. Foresight refers to the method of working back on the past rather than working on the future.

European Foresight Network does foresight on different countries and companies and collates data and ask why they are” wasting their time doing foresight studies”. Their various reasons are such as:

1)   Analyzing the future potential of technologies

2)   Supporting policy or strategy development

They aim to shape and strategize where they want to go in the future.

3)   Network building

4)   Bringing people of similar interests to come together

5)   Priority setting for science and technology

6)   Methodology and capacity building

How they can give people the skillsets to be able to perform these studies in the future.

7)   Articulating supply and demand

What we need to do in terms of training our people and what we can achieve with the resources and manpower that we have.

8)   Public Engagement

Share findings so that public can participate, such as how Siemens use advertisements to reach out to the people, and they discuss its implications of their products and how it can be adapted

Output of foresight

1)   Policy recommendations

Done by inter-governmental companies

2)   Analysis of trends and drivers

3)   Scenarios

4)   Research and other priorities

5)   List of key technologies

6)   Forecasts

7)   Technology roadmaps

8)   Others

Key Takeaways

1)   It is important for people to look towards the future instead of the present for greater innovation and technological advancement.

2)   There are various reasons and aims of why people choose to invest in research and development in technology.

3)   Developing countries without vast resources must choose and prioritize to invest in the right forms of technology. Otherwise, these investments will backfire.

Issues for Further Discussion

1)   How do countries know which areas of technology they should invest in?

2)   What are the few examples of prospective successful forms of technology in the near future?

3)   Are there new ways of technological assessment that has not been implemented yet?

Personal Ratings

I give this class an 8/10.