Session 10

Brief Overview/Summary

The tenth TWC lesson was about Technology Assessment and Forecasting, particularly in the area of developing a framework for understanding and what comes next. Prof Shahi then defined certain terms that are key and necessary in today’s lesson.

Forecast: The process of predicting future directions in technology, where new forms of technology might lead us to, and how it may change the world.

Foresight: Refers to the interface between forecasting and assessment by looking at one specific form or area of future technology, and then assess its feasibility and adaptability in the near future.

Assessment: Evaluating a technology that currently exists. People can assess current forms of technology by asking where we are now with such form of technology, where we’re going with it, and how it will change the way society operates.  

One of the examples that Prof mentioned is that use of robots in daily lives. Why would humans need robots? For cleaning and sweeping? If so, what are the social implications? Will it cause a lack of the availability of jobs? (In particular, the use of robotic cars will rob away the jobs of taxi drivers and public transport drivers.)

Interesting Observations and Ideas

Prof Shahi formally started the class with a quote by Charles Kettering:

“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”

This quote meant is that in reality, from this minute forward, everything that we do is in the future. However, the question is, why are we so interested in the future?

The future can help us move forward. If we are aware of the opportunities and challenges ahead in the future, we will be prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. However, if we do not know what will happen in the future, we will be lost and left behind.

The second quote that Prof shared was an African proverb, which said that:

“Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today”

Similar to the first quote, this quotes means that if one do not prepare for tomorrow, when it comes, one is going to be surprised.

Prof then showed us a video from Siemens, titled Siemens: Megatrends, which portrayed the use of technology today and how technology can advance in the future.

In short, the video emphasized that security is one of men’s’ basic needs. However, if people implement such forms of security on knowledge, it will not benefit, and will even impede our progress. This means that if we choose to keep knowledge secret and only provide them to others on a confidential basis, the ability to get comments and feedback is limitless. This way, the spread of knowledge is impeded and without feedback and comments, people cannot work on the existing work to improve to the next level, giving new insights and information.

The second video that Prof showed us is a parody of Microsoft's Vision of the Future, which portrayed the possible forms of technology in the near future.

As mentioned in previous lessons, some of these forms of technology are already available, and it is dependent on people to fully utilize it for further technological advancement. However, the challenge that people face today is to determine the winners of the future from the dead end, such that which form of technology will triumph in the future, and which ideas will be taken down.

Prof also introduced a quote by Benjamin Franklin, stating:

“Look before, or you'll find yourself behind”

This quote tells us that we have the choice of whether we want to live in the past or the future. However, if we want to look into the future, we have to look at the history, learn from it and then continue to look into improving ourselves.

Also, a quote by Winston Churchill said that:

“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind. ”

This means that people must focus on how we are going to conquer the world. However, to ‘conquer the world’ is not based on one’s physical might, but in their imagination and creativity. It will be the ones who dare to imagine and dream to create the future.

Prof then showed us a video called Future, Technology and the Next 50 years Megatrends.

This video summarizes everything that we talked about from the first lesson of the class. The question asked if different forms of technology such as solar, robotics, network, nanotech and augmented reality can and will really be established in the future.

Drivers for Technology Assessment and Forecasting

1)   Exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance

This is one of the biggest drivers of technology assessment and forecasting. There are more and more new technologies that are coming up today and people would need to start making sense of them. We would need to decide which technology would work and be accepted in society, which would be useful but has social implications, and which would not work and should not be brought out into the market.

2)   The need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring – in economic, social, ethical/legal, and environmental and other terms.

This means that people must be able to assess and evaluate technology and how it can potentially change things. Based on that, people must decide if such forms of technology are positive or negative. With that, they will either say no to its existence, KIV, or either accept and bring that form of technology into the market.

3)   The need to prioritize in deciding whether and when to invest in research and development of new innovations and technologies

If you have a budget for research in your country, do you want to invest in research for new forms of technology? What are the potential implications you may face? Is it going to be big impact? How big a player can it be in the society?

No one has unlimited research resources and budgets, and therefore people must decide and learn to prioritize their budgets for most important and viable research.

4)   The need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies – especially important in developing countries

There is an important need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether we should and when we can implement and use new innovations and technologies. This is especially important in developing countries. Developing countries have to place huge importance on prioritizing their resources to needs instead of wants. Typically, people would think that it would be pointless and a waste of resources for developing countries to invest in research in new technology. If the people are living in poverty, the government should take steps to mediate such a situation instead.

In the short term, the use of resources for research in developing countries may look like its wrong and a waste of resources, as peoples’ needs are not directly met. However, in the long term, if the government has made the right bets on the type of research to invest in, it will increase the output from the country and directly bring advancement to the economy. With a large industrial base, companies can start pushing for output and economic gains.

In short, organizations involved in research of new technology should look at short-term gains, but countries should look further and focus on long-term gains instead of short-term needs. Each organization has their own drivers to decide what they want to spend their resources on.

Prof Shahi then continued the lesson with a quote from John F Kennedy:

“For time and the world do not stand still…

Change is the law of life.

And those who look only to the past or the present

Are certain to miss the future.”

This quote tells us that we cannot get hung up about current situations and issues or even historic issues, because the future is coming at us whether we like it or not. It is either we prepare for it, or we’re going to find ourselves left behind.

Prof also then showed us another video titled Tracking the Future - Global Trends. It gave the word ‘future’ an acronym:

Fast moving

Urban living

Tribal – New tribes, new groups of people with new interests and commonalities

Universal change –

Radical change

Ethical – Ethics in business

These words, which form the word ‘future’, describe the kind of world that we live in today,

Foresight

To begin, there are many foresight institutes established in the world today. Foresight refers to the method of working back on the past rather than working on the future.

European Foresight Network does foresight on different countries and companies and collates data and ask why they are” wasting their time doing foresight studies”. Their various reasons are such as:

1)   Analyzing the future potential of technologies

2)   Supporting policy or strategy development

They aim to shape and strategize where they want to go in the future.

3)   Network building

4)   Bringing people of similar interests to come together

5)   Priority setting for science and technology

6)   Methodology and capacity building

How they can give people the skillsets to be able to perform these studies in the future.

7)   Articulating supply and demand

What we need to do in terms of training our people and what we can achieve with the resources and manpower that we have.

8)   Public Engagement

Share findings so that public can participate, such as how Siemens use advertisements to reach out to the people, and they discuss its implications of their products and how it can be adapted

Output of foresight

1)   Policy recommendations

Done by inter-governmental companies

2)   Analysis of trends and drivers

3)   Scenarios

4)   Research and other priorities

5)   List of key technologies

6)   Forecasts

7)   Technology roadmaps

8)   Others

Key Takeaways

1)   It is important for people to look towards the future instead of the present for greater innovation and technological advancement.

2)   There are various reasons and aims of why people choose to invest in research and development in technology.

3)   Developing countries without vast resources must choose and prioritize to invest in the right forms of technology. Otherwise, these investments will backfire.

Issues for Further Discussion

1)   How do countries know which areas of technology they should invest in?

2)   What are the few examples of prospective successful forms of technology in the near future?

3)   Are there new ways of technological assessment that has not been implemented yet?

Personal Ratings

I give this class an 8/10.

Session 9

Brief Overview/Summary

The ninth TWC lesson was about Emerging and Future Technologies. In today’s lesson, Prof Shahi shared with us multiple quotes and showed us various videos that present new and emerging forms of technology possible in the near future.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

Prof Shahi started the lesson by introducing to us a quote from George Bernard Shaw that stated: 

“You see things; and you say, 'Why?'

But I dream things that never were; and I say, 'Why not?'”

This quote exemplifies the different perspectives that one can have, and it differentiates the mindset between someone of a ‘rising star’ and someone who is a ‘falling star’. By asking ‘why not?’ one is opening himself to many different possibilities without any limitations. Asking ‘why’ is limiting one’s potential and imagination, and is only keen to find problems and issues in current situations.

Prof Shahi then showed us a video on clay-tonics. It is a new and advanced form of technology that allows one to touch, feel and mould clay to transform ideas and innovation to become reality just by using their hands. This is form of technology can help people create ideas and innovate easily through three-dimensional technology. For example, they can use the creative idea of SCAMPER to edit products for sell. Scamper consists of Substitution, Combination, Alternatives, Modification, Put to other uses, Elimination and Rearrange.

Prof then showed us another quote from one of his favourite “dead men”, Albert Einstein. It stated:

“Imagination is more important than knowledge.

For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

Similar to the first quote, this quote particularly talks about one inculcating a rising star mentality. If you limit yourself to the issues and knowledge that we currently have, you find yourself limited to what you can do, and you will never open the Pandora’s box of new ideas.

Prof also introduced to us the idea of a crumpled paper versus a plan sheet of paper. A crumpled paper has many creases on it. This signifies the hot spots and issues that prevent people from getting where you want to go, which is the success of an entirely new idea. If you use the mentality of a ‘crumpled paper’ to reach an aim, you face many different problems and concerns. On the other hand, if we start planning and innovating with the mindset of a ‘plain paper’, we are aware of our clear ideas and path which enables us to put ideas onto paper very easily, and it will be easy for us to incorporate ideas to become a reality.

Next up, we watched a video on the invention of plastic electronics by replacing silicon with plastics. These form of technologies are such as bendable electronic books made out of plastic. This makes eBooks even more user-friendly and child-friendly than what it is today, and it also remains environmentally friendly.

Although many have the impression and mentality that the increase in the use of plastics for bendable electronics are not environmentally friendly as it increases the use of plastics, it must be recognised that the plastics used in this form of technology is made of renewable sources, and does not bring any harm to the environment. Furthermore, if such forms of technology is translated for daily use such as newspapers and magazines, we will be able to save paper, decreasing environmental damage.

Drivers of Emerging and Future Technologies

1)   Market opportunity and need

The success of emerging technology depends on the acceptance of the technology in the market. If the market is not interested in investing in such form of technology, the idea will be a flop. For example, the invention of the iPhone is such as huge success because it has gained widespread acceptance and interest in the world. If not for the consumer demand of the product, the iPhone will not be a success and may fail. On the other hand, the Creative MP3 players were released into the market in early 2000. However, due to the market’s preference for the iPod and the lack of consumer demand for it, it became a flop and eventually left the market, making Apple’s iPod one of the best selling MP3 players in the market today.

2)   Fertile ground for new technologies to be developed and tested

With suitable environments, we are able to create technologies and products that were inconceivable and unsought of 10 years ago. This can be done through intense investments in research and development, and the process itself. The advancement of technology today provides opportunities for greater ideas that can be thought of and expanded from the advanced technology we have today.

Every time we open a new door, we explore new environments and we respond to the needs of the new area. This means that every time we conceive a new idea, we explore new possibilities that were never thought of. We can then find solutions and methods to help these new ideas grow, such that it turns something unanticipated and impossible to become something realistic to the world.

3)   Supply can sometimes create demand

Most of the time, people often do not realise they need something until they see it and want it. For example, when the Walkman was first released, many people never thought that they would need or purchase it. However, after looking and experiencing it for a short period of time, many people realized that they actually wanted to own a Walkman themselves. This made the Walkman very popular in early 2000, revolutionising the use of MP3 players. This was also the case of the iPhone that did not receive much acceptance, as people did not feel that it was necessary for them to own a smartphone, and they were contented with their Nokia. It was until it became increasing popular that people found the need to own an iPhone themselves. Such is the case for 3D printing too.

4)   Mass media and advertising

The use of advertisements for public awareness of a new product is key to gain acceptance in the market. Advertisements are very effective in reaching out to the people, and to attract people to purchase their products. Mass media works especially well with kids today. With the increasing interaction between children and electronic products today, kids are being exposed to more form of advertisements and mass media. Also, as kids usually are not able to decipher between a need and a want, they will be very easily attracted to the products that they see in advertisements, and would demand their parents buy it for them. Alongside peer pressure, mass media and advertisements also play an important role among adults.

5)   Confluence of the 4 Smarts

The 4 smarts include people, ideas, money, alliances and partnerships.

Smart people include investors and innovators that contribute to the advancement of ideas and to translate them to reality and paper.

Smart ideas refer to the birth of new products and inventions that contribute to the society, and are successful and well received by the general consumer public.

Smart money refers to the money used for advancement and the investments before the product’s success.

Smart alliances and partnerships refer to the collaborations of people and/or corporations to the launch of new ideas together.

Some Interesting New and Emerging Technologies

1)   Augmented Reality

Augmented reality refers to the direct and indirect real-world entertainment whose elements are augmented by computer-generated sensory input. Various social networking platforms have already input such forms of technology into their sites, such as Facebook. Facebook now allows people to transfer their real life emotions online, and to post them on the social networking site to share with their friends.

2)   Biotechnologies

The advancement of biotechnologies is still in its early stages, and the world has yet to see any viable and large-scale improvements in the industry.

3)   Robotics

Robotics refers to the interface of computer technology with animation of robots. As early as in the 1930s, there have been writings and research in the area of robots. At the same time, rules have also been created to keep the robot reliant and beneficial to human interests. However, today, people are looking at building robots for the use in the military, and now to drones that can fly, monitor and capture information about people used for many different purposes. The one big question that people should be asking is that if we keep arming robots, and the right to harm people, will there come a time where the robots become so intelligent because of information technology, and the human race becomes endangered?

4)   Nanotechnologies

Nanotechnologies refer to the science of very small things. Today, people are looking into the creation of new nanomaterial that assemble and grow by itself. The advancement of such forms of technology can change the industries of medicine, computers and cars.

5)   Surveillance technologies

Countries today use surveillance technologies to spy on each other.

Key Takeaways

1)   There are endless possibilities to the type and number of emerging and new technologies that can arise in the future.

2)   Most emerging technologies are technology-driven, such that the advancement of technology will consequently lead to the advancement and faster innovation of new products and technologies.

3)   With regards to Yali’s question, the uneven distribution of technology and wealth is partly caused by the different country’s driver for new investments, and the stages and impacts that the drivers that they have for the advancement and creation of new technologies.

4)   Both inventors and the general public are equally important to determine the success of a new invention. The response from the general public to the new creation is a determinant to its success.

Issues for Further Discussion

1)   How do people calculate the risks involved in developing a new technology?

2)   Are people generally getting more interested in new technology?

3)   What is the market looking for with regards to new technology?

4)   Has technological advancement been a boon or bane to new innovations and inventions?

Personal Ratings

I would give today’s class a 9/10. It is one of the most interesting classes in the module, whereby we are able to explore all possible ideas under the sun and be creative in thinking about the different advancements and innovation that we can have in the very near future.

Session 8

Brief Overview/Summary

The seventh TWC lesson was about Energy and World Change, in the past, present and the future.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

Prof Shahi started the lecture by discussing about how over the years, people have gained and lost knowledge at the same time. As must as people have been making discoveries and increasing the knowledge by observations and books, there is also a lose of knowledge by the burning of books, such as the burning of the Library of Alexandra, setting ancient books in China during the Qin Dynasty, and the burying of scholars at the same period of time. This means that people are improving and ‘deproving’, just like moving forward and backwards in spurts. Even so, people and societies have still continued to develop overtime.

Prof Shahi then showed us a video, which is an animation on “Climate Change, Energy and Action”. They first portrayed that they are more than one billion vehicles in the world today. With that, people must let go of old and traditional habits, technologies and ideas and come up with new ones to prepare for the future. Unless we are prepared to come up with new habits, technologies, ideas, we will not have a bright future. This shows that there is a need to re-innovate for a new environment and economy in the world.

The class then moved on to discuss the different drivers for global energy change. As defined in class, drivers for change refer to catalysts and factors that cause us to change the way in which we operate.

1)   Rising energy consumption and need for economic development

Over the years, the West has grown on a fossil fuel based economy, and has also thrived in it. However, this has also created large amounts of greenhouses gases, which as brought much harm and devastation to the world. Up and coming growing economies such as India and China must not follow the same trajectory as it will increase the rate and chances of environmental destruction. There clearly is a need to innovate to find methods that these up and coming economies are able to achieve the same levels of economic growth as the West, but in a way that is not damaging to the environment

As of today, China uses 25% of oil as much as the US does. Ironically, the population of China is 4 times that of US. Although as mentioned before, China must find environmentally friendly resources for economic growth, it is predicted that China will one day use 4 times more amount of fossil fuels than the US does.

2)   Need for sustainability

Brazil was an early player of sustainable energy. They were able to do so due to their lack of petroleum resources in early 90’s. They were highly motivated to produce large amount sugarcane and, developed alcohol from this sugarcane for the successful creation of engines. Brazil is also one of the biggest and thriving alcohol industries in the world, and is also known to be a leader in innovation in green technology. They have also since discovered massive oil reserves in their land, which now makes them a big player in the petrol industry due to their vast resources.

3)   New Technologies and approaches

The use of the electric light no longer exists in Europe since the European government has banned the filament lamp. The government is trying to encourage and make the people use energy-saving lamps, which produces the same amount of lumens of light at a far lower consumption of energy. Europe is now one of the biggest players of green technology in the world, and these pollution prevention and reduction technologies have increasingly adapted to the peoples’ lifestyles, and have also minimized impact on the environment.

There are also other possible drivers for global energy change not mentioned in Prof’s slides, such as the cost of manufacturing. The cost of manufacturing today is highly dependent on environmental pricing.  Today, fossil fuels are cheaper than renewable forms of energy as fossil fuel industries are artificially lowering the prices of fossil fuels to promote their own profits without environmental concern. However, on the bright side, more people are also starting to realize that the market price does not reflect the true price, where the true price of the use of fossil fuels refer to the marginal and external costs of the use of fossil fuels instead of renewable energy.

Key Considerations of Global Energy Change

1)   Energy Security

Modern lifestyles require us to be very reliant on energy, especially in today’s world, where we spend most time and attain large amounts of information from our television, cellphones, computers or tablets. Different people living in different parts of the world are dependent on different types of fuels. Most people are reliant on fossil fuels, while others are reliant on renewable resources such as hydroelectric power. Some less developed countries depend on biomass energy, which is also a traditional source of energy. Examples of biomass energy are such as burning coal and firewood, animal dungs or crop residue. The subsequent discovery of petroleum was a more effective method of producing energy, and people shifted away from biomass fuels.

2)   Energy as a source of national income

Countries such as Nigeria and Middle East (Qatar, Oman) are very dependent on petroleum for the growth of their economy. However, they also understand that petroleum is an exhaustible resource and will not last forever. Therefore, these countries try very hard to diversify their economies so that they can be independent of the oil industry. This way, when oil resources deplete, they are still able to maintain the same levels of economic growth as they do now. This means that Middle East countries are very keen on industrialization to escape from the future oil trap.

3)   Energy for the poor

Developed countries have found many ways and solutions to help people in less developed and remote areas gain energy. However, this is not a long term solution as in times of need, these countries will prioritize their own needs and wants instead of helping the less fortunate countries. This means that the countries in remote areas of less development will still continue to have no access to such resources.

4)   Global Carbon market

5)   Energy and transportation technology

The advancement of energy and transportation technology will help innovate and discover more effective ways to generate energy and find out different ways to better utilize energy.

6)   Biotechnology and energy

Biotechnology and energy refers to the research in new plant-based technologies. Since our primary source of energy is sun, photosynthesis is key in creating energy. Biotechnology allows us to apply these important and key processes we need in a systematic and efficient way to produce energy. For example, the use of algae to create energy has been very popular and has also been gaining more awareness among people today.

The discussion then moved on to where energy comes from.

After much research and observation, energy actually comes from above and below the ground; most of them come from the sun. Above the ground, the various sources of energy are the Sun, wind, water, biomass and waves. Below the ground, the sources of energy are coal, lignite, oil, gas, geo-thermal, and uranium. Energy from below the ground is developed from millions of years put under high pressure and they become oil, gas and petroleum. On the other hand, geo-thermal energy and uranium are not created by solar. The cooling of the earth’s core creates geo-thermal energy, and uranium is created by radioactive technology.

Photovoltaic can generate the most energy as compared to wind and biomass. Reality is that the statistics are staring at us in the face to support such as claim. However, people do not realize it and they give insufficient credit to photovoltaic energy.  

Lastly, even though governments are committed, consumers must also make necessary investments in sustainable energy for it to be successful and well received.

Key Takeaways

1)   Both consumers and governments are important in the growth of sustainable energy and world change.

2)   The different drivers of energy and world change must work in tandem for sustainable energy to be developed.

3)   Sustainable energy is necessary and important so as to create clean and green environments for future generations.

4)   There are many forms of sustainable energy, but people must use the most efficient form of sustainable energy to ensure that they create the most energy in the shortest period of time with the least amount of resources used.

Issues for Further Discussion

1)   Are there other forms of sustainable energy that is not realised yet?

2)   How can the realisation of sustainable energy help in the uneven development of the world?

3)   What are the chances that countries will become sustainable in the next 10 years?

4)   What are the methods that can be put into place so that sustainable energy will become better received among the people?

Personal Ratings

I rate this class 7/10.